Sunday, June 3, 2012

BEA 2002 - Sands of Silicon Valley


Companies from the sands of Silicon Valley: BEA
BEA was perhaps best known for its Tuxedo and WebLogic products. WebLogic had been a leading middleware suite in BEA's portfolio, and the company itself had bought WebLogic the company in 1998 for $192 million in stock (CNet, Sep 1998). WebLogic was perhaps the first J2EE application server, and BEA's name itself was an acronym, derived from the first names of the company's founders.

Oracle acquired BEA Systems in April 2008 after closing a deal in January 2008 to acquire it for $8.5 billion. Oracle then made WebLogic Server the application server of choice across its suite of products, including business intelligence and Fusion applications.

http://www.oracle.com/us/corporate/Acquisitions/bea/index.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BEA_Systems
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuxedo_(software)

© 2012, Abhinav Agarwal. All rights reserved.

Monday, May 28, 2012

Arjun-The Warrior Prince, Movie Review

I am feeling too lazy to write a full-length review post of the movie, Arjun - The Warrior Prince, the first animation movie by Walt Disney in India, and produced by UTV. The movie released on 25 May 2012, and got mostly 3 stars (out of 5). I watched the movie on the 27th of May, and well, despite very good quality graphics and animation, the movie itself falls far short of what could have been a great animation movie of an ancient epic and heroic character.

I rattled off a dozen or so tweets on my timeline, and am reproducing them here as a sort of a review of the movie.

http://thedisneyblog.com/2012/05/03/arjun-disneys-first-animated-film-from-india/
Arjun: The Warrior Prince - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
@utvmp




































© 2012, Abhinav Agarwal. All rights reserved.

Sunday, May 20, 2012

The Honest Truth About Dishonesty, by Dan Ariely - Review


The Honest Truth About Dishonesty: How We Lie to Everyone---Especially Ourselves, by Dan Ariely

(AmazonKindle, Flipkart, Flipkart e-bookInfibeam, my user review on Amazon)
4 stars   This is a notable book I read and reviewed. Click to see more such books.

Dead grannies, failing exams; self-deception and its cousins, overconfidence and optimism.This third book from Dan Ariely, the previous two being Predictably Irrational and The Upside of Irrationality, focuses on the specific area of measuring the extent of cheating under a variety of circumstances. Several experiments the author and others conducted are used to examine how much we cheat, and how that varies with the extent of monitoring, the money involved, and so on. In the end, this is a short, lightweight read on the topic. I would have liked some more academic heft to the book, but I liked the book for what it provided me.

As soon as the book is off the block, so to say, the author takes aim at the venerable Gary Becker, Nobel laureate, who gave us the modern economic notion of cheating by suggesting that "people commit crimes based on a rational analysis of the situation." "He also noted that in weighing the costs versus the benefits, there was no place for consideration of right or wrong; it was simply about the comparison of possible positive and negative outcomes." This came to be known as the "Simple Model of Rational Crime (SMORC)". And it this model that the author seeks to take a sledgehammer of research to. His and his colleagues' research was to try and find out whether this model actually held true under a variety of conditions.  A cursory look around, including the experience of Dan Weiss, who worked at the John F Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, D.C., who found out that "We are going to take things from each other if we have a chance ... many people need controls around them for them to do the right thing." If one looks around in India, especially at the political, bureaucratic, and business class, one cannot but agree with this bleak assessment and with Becker's model of rational crime; lax controls and non-existent monitoring, a corrupt police, compromised investigations, a tardy judicial process, and a media in bed with the venal all mean that crime is a very low-risk profession in India today.

The basic test that was used is a paper test with twenty matrices, each matrix containing twelve numbers, with the task being to find "two numbers that added up to 10" in each matrix. This became the "matrix task". After each person completed the test, for which they were given five minutes, they were supposed to submit their sheets to the experimenter, who would count the number of correct answers and then hand out money based on the number of correct answers. Another setup, "called the shredder condition", was one in which the participants had the "opportunity to cheat." Here the participants had to count the number of correct answers, put their worksheet "through the shredder at the back of the room", come tell the experimenter how many matrices they solved correctly, and get paid accordingly. A third variant of this experiment was to plant a subject who would get up after just a minute or so after the test, proclaim loudly that he (or she) had got many more correct than was reasonably possible, and then see how people reacted. Since these tests were conducted on people on a random basis, and since it was possible to determine, on average, how many problems could people be expected to solve, without cheating, by varying the standard "matrix test" by adding conditions that made it easier and possible for people to cheat, it could be measured how much people cheated when given the opportunity and motive to do so.
"In the control condition, participants solved on average four out of the twenty matrices. Participants in the shredder condition claimed to have solved an average of six - two more than in the control condition."
Basically, it turns out that "we cheat up to the level that allows us to retain our self-image as reasonably honest individuals." How so? Imagine if you were attempting the matrix test along with twenty other people. After the allotted five minutes you had solved only four problems - a very average result, but nothing to scoff at either. But suppose now you were in the shredder version of the test. If you claimed you had solved all twenty matrices, it would be fairly obvious to everyone that you were a big freaking cheat. On the other hand, if you claimed to have solved six or seven or eight problems, you could not only impress others, but also tell yourself that that represented your true ability. After all, you had got distracted during the test, and that time lost therefore did not count. Or that the room was too hot, and that affected your ability to perform to the best of you ability. And so on...

Remember the age-old problem of gorging on junk food when you are tired? This is not a figment of your imagination; rather, psychologists have dubbed it "ego depletion". "The basic idea behind ego depletion is that resisting temptation takes considerable effort and energy." Which leads the author into a direction related to this book, "Might people who overtax themselves in one domain end up being less moral in others? Does depletion lead us to cheat?" Which is sort of related to the very sad problem of dead grannies. Huh? Grannies and students and exam deadlines? Yes! "... students who are failing are fifty times more likely to lose a grandmother compared with non-failing students."

A while back I had read a very engaging and eye-opening book, "Cheap", by Ellen Ruppel Shell (my review), that talked about the different ways in which the fixation on cost has impacted our lives. Dan Ariely's book brings a different perspective on this issue, of fakes. Fakes are a cheap imitation of the real thing, the operative words here being "cheap" and "fake". Lying is at work even here. "People who 'dressed above their station' were silently, but directly, lying to those around them." Fast-forward to some tests and it turns out, as you may have guessed somewhat but will also be surprised, "that wearing a genuine product does not increase our honesty (or at least not by much). But once we knowingly put on a counterfeit product, moral constraints loosen to some degree, making it easier to take further steps down the path of dishonesty."
"In the end, we concluded that counterfeit products not only tend to make us more dishonest; they also cause us to view others as less than honest."
So what is the way out? Obviously, monitoring can help, as the matrix tests clearly reveal. But pervasive monitoring has its own costs, prohibitive at times, clearly impractical at others, and which raises questions of privacy in society. However, a mirror can help. "It seems, then, that when we are made unambiguously aware of the ways we cheat, we become far less able to take unwarranted credit for our performance."

At the end of the day, or the book, whichever comes later, this is a fascinating book that takes a very close look at lying and self-deception. It is likely that several years of further research study is needed to uncover the causes of lying, a topic of much study over thousands of years already. What this book does seem to do is tell us that lying and cheating are not simply matters of straightforward amoral calculations based on costs and consequences of getting caught. And thereby lies the challenge.

Read about Gary Becker's work, Rational Theory of Crime on Wikipedia, and University of Chicago.

A great book and still a fascinating read on how we are influenced and how we seek to influence and persuade others continues to be Robert Cialdini's Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion (Kindle).
Other books on similar topics are Stumbling on Happiness (my review) and  Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness (my review), by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein. These books owe a lot to the fathers of modern behavioral economics, Dan Kahneman and the late Amos Tversky (Choices, Values, and Frames). Kahneman's latest book, Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kindle), continues to gather rave reviews while also managing to be a bestseller.



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© 2012, Abhinav Agarwal. All rights reserved.

Only Las Vegas

You step out of the plane onto the terminal, and as you walk towards the baggage claim area, you pass by a hoarding advertising a "gun store", where you can shoot guns - pistols, automatics, assault rifles, machine guns, and what not. Why not? Gun crime is after all non-existent in the country, and what else could you do except use the more than two-hundred million weapons in the country except as recreational items over a weekend? And again, who would not want to fire off a few rounds after spending an hour or two on the crap tables in Vegas? You lose money at the casino, and you vent off some steam by firing off some rounds.

You wait for your bags at the baggage carousels,and as you look around you see advertisements. All around. For shows at hotels in the town of Vegas. Seeing around you realize that this is where Hollywood and TV artistes go to when they retire out of the limelight.

To take it from the top, the hotels believe in many things to be optional., if you get the picture. This, at the Mandalay Bay, as you walk from the hotel lobby to the conference center. And let's not even get started on having a beach in the middle of a desert, which is where Las Vegas is located. But Las Vegas is about ersatz vicarious fantasy if nothing else

© 2012, Abhinav Agarwal. All rights reserved.

Sunday, May 13, 2012

An Identity Card for Krishna - Devdutt Pattanaik


An Identity Card For Krishna, by Devdutt Pattanaik

Note: since I first wrote this and other reviews of Devdutt Pattanaik's books, I have gained a better understanding of Hindu texts and scriptures. I believe Devdutt Pattanaik's writings are influenced heavily by western frameworks and agendas on the one hand, and introduce subtle and sometimes outright distortions in the interpretation of these texts. A small sample of the kinds of outright errors and distortions that would shame any scholar of Hinduism can be found in this blog post.
I therefore do not recommend any of Devdutt Pattanaik's books that I have reviewed on my blog. - Abhinav, Nov 3, 2017.

Short, fun read for kids on flags and gods in Hinduism

Arjuna's flag (on his chariot) had a monkey (Hanuman) sitting atop. Krishna has a peacock. Duryodhana, Bheeshma, Drona, all had distinctive flags on their chariots. Why? Why do gods need flags, and that too distinctive, and distinct from each others? This short and fun read from Devdutt Pattanaik, mytholigist par-excellence, takes children on a brief journey into this history, set in today's modern times, where the blue-skinned god, Krishna, needs to produce identification to get through security at the airport, and is on his way to Assam to listen to the story of how gods were mandated by sage Chavana (Chyavana), husband of Sukanya, to have this form of identification. The wise sage wasn't too happy, I suppose, with the fact that the celestial twins, the Ashwini brothers, probably had designs on the sage's wife, Sukanya. But that is, another read!

The book is a short and enjoyable read, but perhaps could have been a little longer, and introduced children to some more philosophical concepts.
Image from devdutt.com

© 2012, Abhinav Agarwal. All rights reserved.

UA Lufthansa Jets at SFO

Yes, the temptation to think the terrible is strong. And seeing two large airliner jets so close to each other, facing each other, and seemingly about to crunch into each other, the mind starts thinking the worst. But this is nothing like that. This photo shows a Lufthansa Airlines 747 about to land at the San Francisco International Airport, while a United Airlines jet is taxiing to the start of the runway to begin its takeoff. Seen from afar you cannot judge that the two jets are actually on two different paths, and given the frequency at which flights take off and land at this busy airport, I did not have to wait long to get this shot.


© 2012, Abhinav Agarwal. All rights reserved.

Sunday, May 6, 2012

The Duel by Tariq Ali - Review


The Duel: Pakistan on the Flight Path of American Power, by Tariq Ali

History, Analysis, Commentary, Opinion. Of massages, midnight romps, horrible examples, and of boiling water at the right temperature
(KindleFlipkart, Flipkart e-bookInfibeamJungleeThis Ya ThatIndiaPlaza)

This is a sweeping and often trenchant look at Pakistan, its leaders, its geo-politics, the role of the US, and the challenges facing the nation. It is not a comprehensive account, nor is it altogether impartial, but it is a jolly entertaining and at the same time  educational read.


I was interested in this book for several reasons. For one, it promised to provide a different perspective on Pakistan. Different from the western perspective, and different from the Indian perspective, and the two can be very different. As the author writes, “The West prefers to view Pakistan through a single optic.” The same could well be said for much of Indian analysis, or what passes for analysis of Pakistan, exceptions notwithstanding - the optic continues to be either religious, partition, or the four wars India and Pakistan have fought in the last 65 years.

Monday, April 30, 2012

Imagine by Jonah Lehrer - Review

Imagine: How Creativity Works, by Jonah Lehrer
Anecdote-heavy travels through the world of creativity, and its practitioners
(Amazon, Flipkart, Infibeam, IndiaPlaza)
4 stars

This is an enjoyable, surprising in places, though somewhat anecdote-heavy, travel through the world of creativity and a look into what drives the spark and sustains the fire of creativity in people who are masters of creativity in their disciplines.

If you read Jonah Lehrer's, the author, articles in Wired magazine, you will know two things. First, he writes exceedingly well, a craft honed no-doubt over thousands of hours of focused practice, and secondly, his writings are very much into understanding how the mind works and how we decide, incidentally the title of his previous monster blockbuster bestseller, How We Decide. This book is no different - written with a flowing felicity. Its focus is on a specific capability of the brain - creativity.

Whether it is designing a better mop, writing songs (Bob Dylan), becoming a renowned playwright (Shakespeare, of all people), creating movies (Pixar), performing as a soloist (Yo-Yo Ma), creativity works in somewhat surprising yet also reassuringly familiar ways. The single biggest rule of creativity is that it is open to almost everyone. Even people traditionally bucketed as "handicapped" or "disabled" (autistic people for instance) are blessed with a brain that is differently wired from others, and therefore better adept at creativity in specific areas.

Drugs too can help - yes, I would call that a tad controversial, but the evidence does lend itself to the supposition that certain drugs can help free the mind from the shackles of conformity and set it on a path of creativity. And not just drugs, even stimulants like tea or coffee can help. "Paul Edros... is said to have remarked that a 'mathematician is a machine for turning coffee into theorems.'" Actual drugs work by changing the way the brain works. "Amphetamines act primarily on a network of neurons that use dopamine, a neurotransmitter, to communicate with one another. ... the drug dramatically increases the amount of dopamine in the synapses, which are the spaces between the cells." However, this creativity needs to be followed up by long, long hours of drudgery, so to say, where this spark of creativity is refined, again and again, and then some more, till it reaches the pinnacle of perfection. "If you are doing it right, it's going to feel like work." or "In fact, there is evidence suggesting that the ability to relentlessly focus on a creative problem can actually make us miserable." To wit, if the next time you complain to your boss that he is making your life miserable, he may well respond it's all to make you creative!

Day-dreaming is for the creative types too - disciplined daydreaming, if ever there was a conundrum. Working in teams can dramatically, and provably so, increase productivity and creativity. The example of Pixar is used, and describes some extreme steps like moving the bathrooms at the Pixar team's office into the atrium, which meant, in Steve Jobs' words, "Everybody has to run into each other." Did it help? Well, consider Pixar's track record - every single movie of theirs has been a commercial and artistic success. There is also the story of how Toy Story 2, less than a year before its release, was "Well, it's okay". It took radical steps, like getting everyone close together, physically, and long, long hours of debate and criticism and debate, to get the movie out in the form everyone saw it. Did it take a toll on people? Yes, severe. Tradeoffs I suppose.

Lastly, cities are often derided as agglomerations of decay, pollution, crime, corruption, and moral decay. And certainly, cities and their denizens work overtime to fulfill that promise. However, cities also act as a multiplier when it comes to creativity. Again, provably so. From the times of Shakespeare, or even much before that, densely populated regions have acted as creativity catalysts.

To summarize, this book can be read as a loosely connected collection of essays on creativity. Each chapter focuses on a particular aspect of creativity, held together by scientific evidence and anecdotes. I would strongly recommend this book to one and all.

These are the author's previous novels:
Some other books I would recommend:
Brain Rules for Baby: How to Raise a Smart and Happy Child from Zero to Five, by John Medina
Brain Rules: 12 Principles for Surviving and Thriving at Work, Home, and School, by John Medina
(Flipkart.com linkAll resultsKindle edition, my review on Amazon.com)
The Upside of Irrationality: The Unexpected Benefits of Defying Logic at Work and at Home

 



Kindle Excerpt:






© 2012, Abhinav Agarwal. All rights reserved.

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Lying with Charts - Google Finance

Here's a short post on visualizations and distortions, unintentional but still there.

There was an article on the web that remarked on the rather steep fall-off in Apple's stock over the past week or so. I went over to Google Finance to take a look. What I found was interesting. I took some screenshots and have added them to this blog post.

I wanted to find out how much the stock had actually fallen, which is easily done, and how much the line chart was portraying as the fall in the stock, also fairly easily done.
Let us do some math now. Simple math, the kind I like, the only kind I can probably do now.

First, let us calculate how much the stock has actually fallen. The Google Finance page on Apple,  http://www.google.com/finance?q=aapl , tells us that on April 16, the stock closed at $580.13 - which we will round off to $580. Next, we find that its 52-week trading high was $644
So, you can see that the stock has fallen $64 from its peak, which translates into a 10.2% fall from its peak (64/640).
So, the first number of significance is 10.2% - we will format it bold to make it noticeable.

Next, take a look at the first chart. Even with a linear scale, the problem is that the axis does NOT begin from zero. Notice the first number on the vertical axis is $420 - Google is using a broken axis, which is useful for highlighting the magnitude of changes, as in this graph, but misleading because of its very nature; it inaccurately magnifies increases and decreases. By how much? Let's calculate.

If you were to take a measure and see what is the height of the stock chart from the base to its maximum, i.e. $644, you would find it measures 4" from top to bottom - approximately.
Next, you measure the fall from the peak of $644 to the current trough of $580. It measures approximately 0.95".
So, in this chart, a peak of $644 equates to 4".
A drop of $64 measures 0.95"
Therefore, the chart plots the drop as a 23.75% drop as seen on the chart - we will bold it to make it noticeable.

There you have it - an actual drop of 10.2% looks, note, looks, like a 23.75% drop.
To put that in perspective, had the stock actually fallen by 23.75%, it would have sunk by $152. Yes, and it would have been trading at $492.

Apple Stock Graph in 2012

Even when you change the time-scale to 5 years, it does not help completely, because the vertical axis is STILL a broken axis. The inaccuracy as displayed on the chart is a lot less, but it is still there.
Apple Stock Price over 5 Years

It is only the 10-year plot that has a true, non-distorted picture of the stock. But because of the 10-year plot, the recent rise and steep 10% fall is not very visible. If you zoom only into the current year, 2012, then the distortions creep right back into the graph.
Apple Stock Price over 10 Years

What Google Finance needs to do is add an option, a checkbox, in their Settings panel to allow a user to select whether they want an unbroken axis or not - i.e., to let the charting engine plot a broken axis when it sees fit, or to always display an unbroken axis.

© 2012, Abhinav Agarwal. All rights reserved.

Saturday, April 14, 2012

Strand Book Stall, Mid-year sale, Bangalore

The Strand Book Stall is having its mid-year sale, just for this weekend. It is taking place in the compound of the Wesley Tamil Church, which is located behind Garuda Mall on Magrath Road in Bangalore.

This is the hall where the book sale is taking place.

This is the Wesley Tamil Church; it has an unassuming but elegant facade.

 The hall is to the right of the church. Behind the hall you can see the massive Garuda Mall.

On the road that connects Magrath Road to Richmond Road, you can see a couple of signs that point you to the Wesley Tamil Church compound and the sale.

The hall is is not a very large one, but still big enough to have four aisles.

As always there were some good and interesting books to be spotted in the collection. This is one that I had not heard of before, but will do so now.

Paul Theroux is a noted author, and this is a book with a very striking cover, shall we say. Most people will recognize the photo as that of Goddess Kali, but one can imagine that many in the west would find the cover rather striking. I have not read the book, so cannot say whether the cover has any bearing on the plot, or it is more by way of exercising creative instincts. In any case, I have added A Dead Hand: A Crime in Calcutta to my wishlist.

The day was very hot and dry, and quite unlike Bangalore summers. This has been a particularly long and hot and dry spell in Bangalore, and with no respite from the short but refreshing showers that provide much-needed cooling down of the city. That heat could probably explain the low attendance at the sale. I could also point to the explosion of online sales of books via vendors like Flipkart, IndiaPlaza, Infibeam, and others. What is not in dispute is that online sales have been hurting traditional retailers.
Nonetheless I would also suggest improvements that Strand could have made to their sale. The books had been laid out in one long, continuous heap, arranged very broadly by theme, but not much more to guide visitors by. They could have selected the 500 bestsellers and given them prominence. These bestsellers should have been surrounded by similar books. The visible placement of bestsellers attracts people's attention - they do not have to hunt around the whole hall searching for books. The hunt is something that appeals to some people, and there's nothing wrong in that, because the hall had enough books to satisfy the motivated hunter of books also. For the majority of the people however, a better thought-out placement would have helped.


View Larger Map


© 2012, Abhinav Agarwal. All rights reserved.

Sunday, April 8, 2012

Laxman's Questions - Pratham Books

Laxman's Questions, by Lata Mani (Author), Zainab Tambawala (Illustrator)
(Flipkart)
4 stars
A small and cute book about a young boy's questions.
Laxman has questions. For birds and trees. About animals and nature. He wonders. And he learns that questions are as important as answers. His grandmother is always encouraging, while his mother is secretly proud of her son's inquisitiveness.

Book Synopsis:
Laxman’s head was full of questions: Why did seeing a bird fly make him happy? Did the birds who saw him feel just as happy? Read this book to see if you have such questions too.
Reading Level :3
Level 3: Reading Independently For children who are ready to read on their own
As part of Pratham Book's initiative to have volunteers conduct reading sessions, I contacted Maya and offered to conduct a reading, or two. She agreed, and a few days later I had the book in my hands. A few days later I was able to conduct a reading at http://www.magicpuddles.com/, an amazing school for pre-schoolers, run by Ravi and Viji.

There were about twenty toddlers in the room - Magic Puddles follows somewhat of a Montessori model, where children different ages are mixed together to provide for a more enrichening learning experience.

Having children between two-and-a-half and four-five years of age meant reading out the story page-by-page would be a challenge.
What I instead decided to follow was to not read out the story, but rather use the rich, full-page and double-paged color spreads to tell the story.


Holding up the book, spread open, and then asking the children to guess what was happening turned out to be a winning strategy, and injecting humour in-between kept the kids' attention.


There was one child who had read the story earlier - rather, her father had read the story out to her, and she was super-super-excited to participate in the story telling session! I can imagine the excitement she would have felt - I was taken back more than thirty years back to my own childhood - as best as I can remember it now :-)

One thing that I realized was that the kids were too young to quite understand the importance of speaking to plants and animals, in a metaphorical sense. They understood the importance of asking questions. And were very willing to demonstrate it in practice too!







I shot this too soon... the little fella had not yet finished putting the book up.

And now he has. And now seeing the photos again, I sure hope the little angel in the brown t-shirt got his turn, because in the photo below, he is looking very hopefully, but still without the book in his hands.


And did I tell you the book is priced at Rs 30!! I think all of Pratham Books' books are priced at below Rs 50 - that is simply amazing!

© 2012, Abhinav Agarwal. All rights reserved.